Betting Tips Premier League Round 30: Chelsea to Keep on Improving?
Follow player won for betting suggestions made purely from data. We have written a kick-ass machine learning algorithm that is now generating football predictions. We can’t guarantee that we’re gonna be right with every single prediction, but we should be able to spot the games, where the bookmaker is simply setting the wrong odds.
The Safe Choice: Chelsea vs Wolverhampton. Chelsea to win
Chelsea is showing better and better form since their 3 defeats over 14 days in Manchester. The Carabao Cup finale against Manchester City seems to have been some kind of turn around, even though Chelsea ended up losing on penalty shootout. 3 wins since that game, one of them even against Spurs. The home pitch is gonna be decisive in this game against a Wolverhampton team that has also shown good form lately, but they away stats aren't that strong, and they generally don't do well against high posssession teams such as Chelsea.
Key Statistic: Chelsea has had an average possession of 63% this season. Wolverhampton has only managed an average of 0.8 points per game against a team with that kind of possession stat.
The Value Bet: Newcastle vs Everton. Newcastle to win
Newcastle is in a really good form lately and our model predicts that will continue against Everton. Head to head Everton have had the upper hand against Newcastle, winning 5 of their last 6 encounters, but their form has been declining letting in more goals and scoring less. The opposite is true for Newcastle. They've been getting more shots in and scoring more goals lately than the beginning of the season. We predict that you can go as low as odds 2.25 (5/4) on a Newcastle win, so at a market average of 2.8 (9/5) there's definitely, value in this bet.
Key Statistic: Everton has scored 0.5 goals less in the last 6 games then they have in the whole season.
If you need more inspiration, we have other bets, where we think the bookmaker is getting it wrong:
Liverpool vs Burnley. Liverpool to win
Liverpool vs Burnley. Both teams not to score
Arsenal vs Man Utd. Both teams not to score
Southampton vs Tottenham. Under 3.5 goals
Leicester vs Fulham. Over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Brighton. Both teams to score
Crystal Palace vs Brighton. Crystal Palace to win
Cardiff vs West Ham. Cardiff to win or draw
Chelsea vs Wolverhampton. Over 2.5 goals
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth. Draw
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