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Betting Tips Premier League Round 29: Few Goals in the Merseyside Derby?



Follow player won for betting suggestions made purely from data. We have written a kick-ass machine learning algorithm that is now generating football predictions. We can’t guarantee that we’re gonna be right with every single prediction, but we should be able to spot the games, where the bookmaker is simply setting the wrong odds.

The Safe Choice: Everton vs Liverpool. Under 3.5 goals

Only 2 of the last 10 Merseyside derby's have ended with more than 3.5 goals, and our predictions say that this one will not go over as well. There should be value in the play for as low as odds 1.25 (1/4), so at a market average of about 1.4 (2/5), this is definitely worth a play.

Liverpool has not been scoring that many goals lately when playing as the away team, and Everton is averaging at around 1.3 goals scored per game. It's a little higher at home with 1.4, but against a great defense like Liverpool, they're surely gonna have their hands full.

Key Statistic: Liverpool has only conceded 0.54 goals per game when playing away.

The Value Bet: West Ham vs Newcastle. Draw

Newcastle is coming with a really strong form with 13 points in the last 6 games in Premier League, and of course that raises the probability of an away victory, but what it also does is raise the probability of a draw significantly, and with the current odds in the market, it's definitely the draw bet that has the most value in it.

West Ham is not without chances either. They managed to slip away from Etihad with only a 1-0 defeat against Man City last weekend, and home at London Stadium they have a pretty good record - 1.5 points per game, but with Newcastle's good form in mind, we're gonna go for the draw on this one.

Key Statistic: Newcastle has drawn almost half of their away games.

Other predictions

If you need more inspiration, we have other bets, where we think the bookmaker is getting it wrong:

  • Man Utd vs Southampton. Man Utd to win

  • Fulham vs Chelsea. Under 2.5 goals

  • Watford vs Leicester. Watford to win

  • Bournemouth vs Man City. Draw

  • Burnley vs Crystal Palace. Under 2.5 goals

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